Power Output Forecasting of a Solar House by Considering Different Cell Temperature Methods

Abstract

Forecasting of power generation is needed for accurate design and performance evaluation of solar energy systems to associate demand and source side dynamics efficiently. Since the power output values of solar energy systems are significantly affected by the cell temperature, estimation of cell temperature has gathered wide interest in recent years. In this study, cell temperature values of the on-grid photovoltaic panels of a solar house placed in Anadolu University. Iki Eylul Campus are estimated by using six different models. In addition, power output values of the system are forecasted with three different models by using the estimated cell temperature values, measured outdoor parameters and panel specifications. Therefore, the most accurate models for cell temperature estimation and power forecasting are determined according to the results of statistical test analysis methods.